By Helmut Jungermann, Gerard De Zeeuw (auth.), Helmut Jungermann, Gerard De Zeeuw (eds.)
It is simply only in the near past that folks have the instruments to pass judgement on how good they're doing while making judgements. those instruments have been conceptualized within the 17th century. seeing that then many of us have labored to sharpen the ideas, and to discover how those should be utilized additional. the issues of decision-making and the speculation constructed correspondingly have drawn the curiosity of mathematicians, psychologists, statisticians, economists, philosophers, organizational specialists, sociologists, not just for his or her normal relevance, but additionally for a extra intrinsic fascination. There are a variety of institutionalized actions to disseminate effects and stimulate learn in decision-making. for approximately a decade now a eu organizational constitution, based regularly round the psy chological curiosity in decision-making. there were meetings in Hamburg, Amsterdam, Uxbridge, Rome and Darmstadt. convention papers were partially published+. The association has therefore stabilized, and its re latively lengthy heritage makes it fascinating to determine what sort of advancements happened, in the quarter of interest.
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Extra resources for Decision Making and Change in Human Affairs: Proceedings of the Fifth Research Conference on Subjective Probability, Utility, and Decision Making, Darmstadt, 1–4 September, 1975
Over dependence on specific evidence and neglect of base rates has been observed among psychometricians responsible for the development and use of psychological tests (Meehl & Rosen, 1955). When Lichtenstein and Slovic (1971) observed anchoring bias in subjects' evaluations of gambles, they repeated the study, with identical results, on the floor of a Las Vegas casino (Lichtenstein & Slovic, 1973). Particularly relevant to the present paper is evidence illustrating these sorts of biases in individuals attempting to cope with natural disasters.
Psychological research can contribute to this nascent methodology by identifying the major sources of error in societal risk-taking decisions and by devising techniques to minimize those errors. In the remainder of this paper we shall speculate about some of the directions this research could take. 5. Evaluating Low-Probability, High-Consequence Events The most important public hazards are events with extremely low probabilities and extremely great consequences. 01. The city of Skopje, Yugoslavia, was leveled by earthquakes in the years 518, 1555, and 1963, and the mudflow that took 25,000 lives in Yungay, Peru, had swept across the same valley between 1,000 and 10,000 years before.
SLOVIC ET AL. 28 society. Despite the aversiveness of thinking about life in economic terms, the fact is inescapable that by our actions we put a finite value on our lives. Decisions to install safety features, to buy life insurance, or to accept a hazardous job for extra salary all carry implicit values for a life. Economists have long debated the question of how to best quantify the value of a life (see, for example, Hirshleifer, Bergstrom& Rappa- port, 1974; Mishan, 1971; Rice& Cooper, 1967; Schelling, 1968).