Capital Returns: Investing Through the Capital Cycle: A by Edward Chancellor

By Edward Chancellor

This ebook makes use of quite a few examples to illustrate how the capital cycle method of investments works, and the way it has supplied traders with market-beating returns during the last decade.

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Additional resources for Capital Returns: Investing Through the Capital Cycle: A Money Manager’s Reports 2002–15

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Low rates have also encouraged investors to chase yield, which poses the threat of capital losses at some future date. Chapter 6 – China Syndrome: Many investors believe that investment returns follow economic growth. Yet the returns from the Chinese stock market since it reopened in the early 1990s have been dreadful – notwithstanding the occasional bubble. Poor returns from Chinese equities are largely the result of Beijing’s investment-intensive growth model, which relies on cheap capital, debt forgiveness and never-ending asset growth.

Just look around. In Thailand, natural gas is already outselling petrol because of new technology used by taxis, tractors, buses and now some cars; in the US and in the UK (where there are tax incentives for “green” vehicles), there’s increasing evidence of not just hybrid vehicles but now fully electric cars (from economy models such as the Smart to the sporty Tesla), and facilities are being built to recharge these vehicles on the move; businesses are developing natural gas powered trucks (manufactured by Navistar and Clean Energy Fuels Corp) 42 CAPITAL RETURNS and hydrogen cell cars (by Acal).

Despite this rise in capex, net income has actually fallen slightly in aggregate, which explains the marked drop in returns on 9 By the end of 2014, the Brent Crude oil price had fallen to $57, a decline of over 50 per cent from the date of this article (February 2012). Over the same period, the FTSE All-World Oil & Gas Index fell by 16 per cent, underperforming the broad FTSE All-World Index by over 48 per cent. 44 CAPITAL RETURNS equity for the large energy companies – from 27 per cent in 2007 to 17 per cent in 2012, at a time when the oil price increased by nearly 20 per cent.

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