Behavioral Decision Making by John W. Payne (auth.), George Wright (eds.)

By John W. Payne (auth.), George Wright (eds.)

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It is easy to verify by applying the equation of prospect theory to Problems 5 and 7. 0) will prefer A to Band F to E, contrary to expected utility theory. Prospect theory does not predict a reversal of preference for every individual in Problems 5 and 7. It only requires that an individual who has no preference between A and B prefer F to E. For group data, the theory predicts the observed directional shift of preference between the two problems. The first stage of Problem 6 yields the same outcome (no gain) for both acts.

R. (1978). A contingency model for the selection of decision strategies. Academy of Managemclll Review. 3. 439-449. Bell, D. , Keeney, R. L .. & Raiffa, H. ). (1977). Conj7icting objectil'cs in decisions. Chichester, England: Wiley. , & Breznitz, S. J. (1981). The effects of time pressure on risky choice behavior. Acta Psychologica. 47. 89-104. Bernoulli. D. (1738). Specimen theoriae norae de mensura sortis. Comentarii AcademiaI' Sciemiarum Imperiales Petropolitanae. 5. 175-192. (Translated by L.

In many situations, however, an action gives rise to a compound outcome, which joins a series of changes in a single attribute, such as a 36 Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman sequence of monetary gains and losses or a set of concurrent changes in several attributes. To describe the framing and evaluation of compound outcomes, we use the notion of a psychological account, defined as an outcome frame that specifies both the set of elementary outcomes that are evaluated jointly and the manner in which they are combined and a reference outcome that is considered neutral or normal.

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